Unfortunately,
the Bush Administration’s public diplomacy was not as successful.
President Bush’s decision to cancel a U.S.–ASEAN leader’s summit in
2007, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s intermittent attendance at
regional meetings, and Assistant Secretary Chris Hill’s seeming
indifference to Southeast Asia contributed to a damaging impression of
American withdrawal. That conclusion was neither fair nor accurate, but
it proved difficult to shake.
President
Obama has the opposite problem. His attention to the region is helping
to correct the impression of a declining American commitment.
Dispatching Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Indonesia on her
first trip abroad and her attendance during the July ASEAN foreign
ministers meetings were important high profile gestures. And now the
President has lined up his own summit with ASEAN leaders.
But, thus far, his engagement has lacked substance.
No
one expects President Obama to immediately produce a list of
accomplishments like the one it took the previous Administration eight
years to build. It is reasonable, however, to expect the President to
use this week’s U.S.–ASEAN summit meeting in Singapore to lay down
markers on the most important issues in the U.S.–ASEAN relationship:
free trade, Burma, and the rise of China.
Free Trade
There
is nothing more important to ASEAN than trade. It is where ASEAN has
achieved its most concrete results: The ASEAN free trade area and FTAs
with China, India, South Korea, Japan and others. At a minimum,
President Obama should indicate an interest in moving toward a
U.S.–ASEAN FTA. He should pick up on the Bush Administration’s intent
to negotiate American entry into the Transpacific Partnership, which
already includes Singapore, Brunei, Chile, and New Zealand. And he
should pursue APEC’s interest in a free trade area of the Asia Pacific
encompassing its 21-country membership.
President
Obama should also maintain the traditional U.S. interest in
comprehensive “gold standard” FTAs. High quality means tougher
negotiations. But the region does not need a catalyst to speed them
toward managed trade. Nor does the U.S. need a trade policy that fights
the market for the right to pick winners and losers.
Burma
The
Obama Administration’s Burma policy is not that new—it is essentially a
continuation of the previous sanctions policy combined with a new level
and tempo of outreach. Last month, Assistant Secretary of State for
East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell testified before the House
Foreign Affairs Committee that “a fundamentally different U.S.–Burma
relationship will require real progress on democracy and human rights.”
Among the things he identified as constituting “progress” were the
release of “all” political prisoners, the “unconditional” release of
Aung San Suu Kyi, an end to conflict with minority groups, and genuine
dialogue among the government, democratic opposition, and minorities.
It is important that President Obama himself
make these conditions for lifting sanctions clear to ASEAN leaders.
Leaders will listen to him in way that they will not listen to official
policy statements from the State Department. And if he does not say it,
they can only assume that there is a disconnect between the State
Department and the President’s real focus. President Obama can sit at
the same table with Prime Minster Thein Sein and the other nine ASEAN
leaders, as is planned. (President Bush was prepared to do the same
with the Burmese foreign minister in 2007.) But if what President Obama
says about Burma does not cause discomfort among the leaders present,
he has said it wrong.
Burma
is an issue at the heart of the struggle for ASEAN’s future. Is it a
rules-based organization defined by its charter’s commitment to
democracy, rule of law, human rights, and fundamental freedoms, or is
it a networking opportunity? By helping ASEAN provide the right answer,
not only will the President help Burma and the cause of freedom in
other undemocratic ASEAN regimes; he will strengthen the case for
American engagement.
China
The
rise of China is the unspoken subtext for the U.S.–ASEAN meeting. Both
sides recognize the role that an energetic American diplomatic presence
in Southeast Asia can play in balancing China’s growing influence.
The
ASEAN countries have major economic interests at stake in their
relationship with China. They will be keenly interested to know that
the U.S. has no intention of blowing that up. When Republicans were in
power in Washington, the ASEAN countries worried about the “Panda
slayers”—those so alarmed about China’s geopolitical position and
fast-growing military strength that they force American friends to
choose sides. With the left in control of the government, these
countries are concerned about the protectionism of organized labor and
environmental groups.
The ASEAN leaders, however, may also reveal concerns about China.
China’s
economic role in the region is not entirely positive—particularly with
regard to currency policy. During the Asian financial crisis, the
Chinese received rave reviews for not devaluing their currency and
thereby undercutting Southeast Asia’s ability to export its way out of
economic trouble. In truth, the PRC’s policy then had nothing to do
with the welfare of its neighbors. Its policy was all about stability
and control. Today, the same desire and its peg to a falling dollar are
putting upward pressure on other regional currencies.
President
Obama should also listen for common concern about China’s military
buildup and creeping assertiveness in the South China Sea. Much of the
focus on the speech that founding Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan
Yew delivered in Washington a couple weeks ago was on his invitation to
the U.S. to help the region maintain balance vis-à-vis China. The
Minister Mentor wondered aloud about the purpose of the military
hardware on display during the PRC’s 60th anniversary parade. He
allowed that it “cannot be just be to deter foreign intervention in a
conflict between Taiwan and the Mainland” before noting China’s massive
claims in the South China Sea and pointing out that the Chinese “have
built on several islets, fishing outposts, and coastguardvessels patrol
them. Later, behind these small patrol craft will be a blue-water
fleet.”
Concerns
such as these are usually the preserve of Washington’s China-skeptics.
Lee Kuan Yew, a high priest of foreign policy realism, blessed them for
a broader audience.
President
Obama should be clear that although the U.S.–China economic
relationship is of great importance to his Administration, he hopes
China’s emergence as a great power will proceed constructively and
that, as assurance, the U.S. will stand by undiminished in its
traditional role of guarantor of the peace and security of the region.
Focus on What Matters
The
capitals of ASEAN nations are very tolerant of dialogue for dialogue’s
sake. In fact, they often testify to its dubious positive value.
Americans, however, are not as patient with mere conversation. Without
results, engagement of ASEAN will not be taken seriously in Washington.
The worst case for the U.S. would be a series of fruitless discussions
that only confirm ASEAN’s reputation as “talk shop” and devalue
American participation. The President can benefit U.S. national
interests directly and impact its strategic position for the long term
by helping ASEAN prove its value. He can only do that by focusing on
what counts.
Walter Lohman is Director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.
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